Neopets Food ClubElise Kozler
Neopets Food Club Introduction
A betting game. Seems very simple and so’, but it breaks our heads. This is a GREAT way to win neopoints. Statistics (this game is very statistical, as you may notice later) tell that the more you play the more you can earn from it. It’s hard to understand and to master (*pokes non-mastered self*) but above I’ll try to explain, based on guides by people that are better than me on much aspects, what to do to play this game.
On the rules, TNT warns you to do some weird statistical and regression plot madness, spin twice, compare, pick up your calculator, die, resurrect and click the yellow key of your Texas calculator to choose the right option. IGNORE IT. And read the rest of the guide (may I thank a lot to sirhatter and his guide at /~windagame for all the help on this. Again)
|Food Club (click to play)|
Food Club Pirates and Food
First let’s analyse who are the pirates and what information we have on them:
|Admiral Blackbeard||Vegetables, Fruits||Dairy|
|Bonnie Pip Culliford||Candy, Smoothies||Spicy Food|
|Captain Crossblades||Slushies, Pizza||Salty Food|
|Federismo Corvallio||Slushies, Pizza||Salty Food|
|Franchisco Corvallio||Spicy Foods, Meats||Candy|
|Gooblah the Grarrl||Meats||Slushies|
|Lucky McKyriggan||Gross Foods||Pizza|
|Ned the Skipper||Meats||Dairy|
|Ol’ Stripey||Meats, Slushies||Breads (pastries, pancakes, etc.)|
|Orvinn the First Mate||Candy, Slushies, Pizza||Fruits|
|Peg Leg Percival||Spicy Foods||Smoothies|
|Puffo the Waister||Candy, Smoothies, Slushies||Meats|
|Scurvy Dan the Blade||Salty Foods, Meats||Candy|
|Sir Edmund Ogletree||Dairy||Breads (pastries, pancakes, etc.)|
|Squire Venabale||Breads (pastries, pancakes, etc.)||Fruits|
|The Tailhook Kid||Pizza||Neggs|
|Younng Sproogie||Meats, Neggs||Gross Food|
This table will certainly help you to choose on which one to bet, but before you even move let’s analyse other table, this one about food:
|Food Name||Image||Food Type|
|Anchovies||Salty foods, Meats|
|Apple Onion Rings||Fruits, Gross foods|
|Bacon Muffin||Meats, Breads (pastries, pancakes, etc.)|
|Bluberry Tomato Blend||Smoothie|
|Broccoli and Cheese Pizza||Vegetables, Dairy, Pizza|
|Bubbling Blueberry Pizza||Fruits, Pizza|
|Cheese and Tomato Sub||Fruits, Breads (pastries, pancakes, etc.), Dairy|
|Cinnamon Swirl||Candy, Breads (pastries, pancakes, etc.)|
|Eye Candy||Candy, Gross foods|
|Flaming Burnumup||Spicy foods, Vegetables|
|Flaming Fire Faerie Pizza||Spicy foods, Vegetables, Pizza|
|Fresh Seaweed Pie||Salty foods, Gross foods|
|Fungi Pizza||Gross foods, Pizza|
|Hot Cakes||Breads (pastries, pancakes, etc.)|
|Hot Tyrannian Pepper||Spicy foods, Vegetables|
|Hotfish||Salty foods, Meats|
|Ice Chocolate Cake||Candy|
|Joint Of Ham||Meats|
|Lemon Blitz||Fruits, Dairy, Smoothies|
|Mustard Ice Cream||Dairy, Gross foods|
|Spicy Wings||Spicy foods, Meats|
|Super Lemon Grape Slush||Slushies|
|Sushi||Salty foods, Meats|
|Tangy Tropic Slush||Slushies|
|Wild Chocomoto||Dairy, Smoothies|
|Worm and Leech Pizza||Gross foods, Pizza|
|Wriggling Grub||Gross foods|
Now that you know this, please follow the rest of the guide for tips and betting strategies.
Food Club Bets / Betting
- Each pirate is allocated odds for the round, according to how much chance they have at winning.
- The odds may fluctuate throughout the day, but very rarely.
- Your profit depends on the odds of your bet. For example: You bet 500 np on a pirate 2:1. If he wins you will receive 1,000 np with a profit of 500 np (numbers by Goodjolly).
- You can bet a maximum of 50 np, plus 2 np for each day you have been playing Neopets
- You can place single bets or multiple bets. On the second case your payout will be maximised For example:Betting on a pirate 2:1 and on another 3:1 will combine the bets into a 6:1 payout. (numbers by Goodjolly)
- You can place a bet in all five rounds
- You cannot place the same bet twice and you can place a maximum of ten bets per day.
Food Club Strategies
Welcome to the hard part. I’ll present you different strategies I’ve found on Neopets and you shall choose the one that fits you better.
I just know the basis of this one, for more information please search on this user’s (which deserves a bow from all of us, inferior souls) lookup page. This strategy works by finding an inequality on the competition and works for long time profits. For example: if a pirate has listed odds of 6 to 1, but you think his odds are really closer to 4:1 you bet on him and wait for the profit to come. More recently we also have the neopets food club garet strategy.
Before betting look at the pirates’ odds and the courses being served up. Write down how many of their favourite foods, and how many they are allergic to are featured on the menu in each round. Below, a table with an example.
I recommend you to treat the allergies more seriously than the favourites.
The biggest odds are 13:1 and are extremely rare. Don’t bet on pirates on 13:1. Statistics say that winners are 2:1 are frequent. Remember that a eating a lot of their favourites and none of their allergies will usually win. You’ll need to find and develop the ability to predict the winners if you want to score big!
Probably the most complex of the guide and also the most effective if you fully understand it (in my opinion). First, print this mathematic thing about the odds.
Now, who elaborated this strategy picked a business term called ‘arbitrage’. Let’s not explain it here, too hard to understand the concept (unless you are a gambler or you bet on horse races). Basically, if you add up the percentages of your four players and it’s less than 100% you have an arbitrage. If it’s more than 100% there is not an arbitrage.
Here we find a market concept that applies to Neopets (where does TNT find these ideas’ T_T). Quoting: ‘The neopets food club daq is a series of bets. The bets are weighted in your favour, through finding arbitrages. We can ultimately create the estimated odds we want of a winning situation and an approximate payout. We can change these conditions every day, and make bets over and over. We are not faced with the uncomfortable decision of being forced to wager millions of neopoints in a single day. Depending on your longevity, you are capped at how many neopoints you can wager, since you are limited to 10 bets, and each bet is capped.’
To understand how does market maths applies to this game I’ll quote Sirhatter again (may he pardon me) with this example:
- Race X
- Guatemole the Great: 2 to 1
- Grephun the Grinner: 6 to 1
- Mollymooster the Mighty: 10 to 1
- Silvak the Strong: 12 to 1
- Race Y
- Kemito Kid: 2 to 1
- Lyteric the Lofty: 13 to 1
- Gongachoek the Choker: 13 to 1
- Togsterthe2nd: 13 to 1
Using the handy-dandy conversion chart above, you can see that these are both arbitrage situations since the numbers add up to less than 100. In the first race it adds up to 84, and the second race it adds up to 71, which is the lowest possible number.What are the actual odds of winning, assuming uncapped numbers? For everything between 3-1 and 12-1, assume the actual odds are correct. For someone at 13-1, give them a 5% chance (since their implied odds may well be worse than even 20-1, this just seems like the actual number in my experience)
To calculate the odds of someone at 2-1, we have to do some subtraction.
For race x, we can subtract 8, 10, and 16 from 100 (see the numerical chart once again). This leaves us with 66, or about a 2/3 chance of Guatemole winning.
For Kemito, he has almost an 85% chance of winning, according to the odds. These really sting when Kemito loses, and you will feel like this happens more than 15% of the time, but really it is just because the losses in this situation are so shocking that they stick out way more than the wins.
So to me, the other three pets, using my system, are either fair bets, or bets with a negative expectation if we were only to bet on them. The garmfay system would attempt to figure out which pirates are actually better values than the listed odds, and more often than not will find the best values in arbitrage situations (which is why there is some validity to his method). I, in this particular case, am going to run with the 2-1 pirates. Assuming X and Y are the only profitable races, I will make at least the following three bets:
- Race X: Guatemole, 3000 NP (this is not my maximum, or yours, but I am using it for illustrational purposes)
- Race Y: Kemito: 3000 NP
- RACE XY: Guatemole, Kemito, 4 to one odds: 3000 NP
Note that you can not make an identical bet twice, but you can bet on the same pirate in multiple races. This last bet is called a PARLAY. To win the PARLAY, both pirates must win. One pirate winning and one losing will lose me the bet. As you can see, though, the payout is bigger. Combine this with race X and Y, and from just two profitable races out of five, I could have a good situation.
- If just Guatemole wins: I make three bets for 1500, one pays out for 3000, and I lose 1500.
- If just Kemito wins: same as Guatemole, I lose 1500.
- If neither wins: I lose 4500 (ouch!)
- If both win: I get paid 4:1 on my parlay, plus 2:1 on each individual race, for a total payout of 12000, or profit of 7500.
So I could make 15,000, but could lose at least 3,000 and maybe more.Notice that IF we took the arbitrage in each race, assuming a 1500 max bet, we would have made 1200 neopoints, with no risk, for eight bets. So that’s better than the best I have outlined, right? Wrong.
If we really look at the EXPECTED profit, over the long run, here is what it will show:
- We know the approximate odds of each pirate winning.
- The odds that neither Guatemole nor Kemito win are quite small, 5% to be exact.
- The odds that just Kemito wins are decent, 29%.
- The odds that just Guatemole wins are also decent, 10%.
- The odds that both win are surprisingly only a little bit better than 50%. In this case, I estimate them to be 56%.
‘Omg, this is friggin’ hard, I’ll never understand that!’ you may say. I say that too. Fortunately you just need to do all these maths once, on your first try. After it the train will lead you to a non-maths path. But now, pay attention: this is not the way to make HUMONGEOUS profit. This is just the basic (it’s like math classes’ You need to learn the basics and follow to the complex parts). Now we’re going to talk about Multi Race Optimal Bets, Parlays and Sub-optimal Races.
On this section we’ll try to maximize profit. Be aware that you can win big but that you can also lose a lot. It’s all about risk and luck (as real world market, heh). And notice: this game is about *long profit*. We’re not talking about maximizing your daily wins but maximizing your *average* wins. This means that you can lose sometimes but that your profit will be great anyway. To make it easier to understand (and to write, if we think well) I’ll quote the usual betting scenarios from Sirhatter:
- There are no arbitrages on race day Do not think of betting, unless you are chasing a trophy or are sufficiently addicted to gambling that you want to take a shot at something and do not mind throwing the money away. Just take a pass on today and do other activities.
As a quick guide, here are some ways you can eyeball a race and immediately know it is not bettable:
- Two pirates have 2:1 odds. The arbitrage rule tells us this is at least -10 points of arbitrage. AVOID THESE AT ALL COSTS. Sometimes you will see amazingly bad races of two pirates at 2:1 and a third at 3 or 4 to 1. These are even worse than what real-life bookies would offer you on an actual horse race. The reality is that the 2:1 pirates are probably about 36% to win. Too juicy for 3:1, but not good enough for 2:1. AVOID AVOID AVOID!!!
- No pirates have 2:1 odds. AVOID THIS RACE, TOO! The way the math works, again, you never get the benefit of the doubt from the bookie. So something at 26%, even though it is real close to 4:1, and should be 3.9:1, only gives you 3:1. As a result, anytime you see no pirates at 2:1, it is a situation where all four pirates are getting a raw deal from the bookie. AVOID.
- Two Pirates have 3:1 odds, or two Pirates have 4:1 odds in any race. Will not do out the math here, but you can avoid these, too – trust me.
- There is one arbitrage on race day
Again, if you are looking to maximize profit, only bet on that race. I never touch the 13-1. Perhaps if you studied garmfay’s method, there might be a spot where a 13-1 seems like a good bet. I do not study garmfay’s method, though, and to me, usually 13-1 means its really about 20-1, so I just stay away. If the race is only marginally profitable, you have a tough call. For example:
- Eater A: 2:1
- Eater B: 5:1
- Eater C: 5:1
- Eater D: 13:1
This is about a 5% point arbitrage if you use the analysis I gave you earlier. We think A is 50% to win, B is 20% to win, C is 20% to win, and D is 5% to win.
Again, in these situations I give the 5 points of arbitrage to Eater A, because of the cap at 2:1. We can reasonably assume that if Neopets had their way, the true value on Eater A would be about 1.9 to 1.
This then leaves us with this difficult question, and two possible bet strategies: is it better to just dump your whole load on Eater A, or maybe a big bet on Eater A, followed up with about half-sized Bets on Eater B and Eater C?
Meaning we could do the following:
- 2000 NP Eater A OR
- 2000 NP Eater A
- 800 NP Eater B
- 800 NP Eater C
The first way gives us a 55% chance of winning 2000 and a 45% chance of LOSING 2000. The expected value is only 200 neopoints.The second way gives us a 95% chance of winning 400 neopoints and a 5% chance of LOSING 3600 neopoints. The expected value is exactly the same. Which strategy do I choose?
I choose the first one. I do not want to waste my time with three bets. I do not want to only make 400 neopoints. The expected values are the same, but more importantly, Eater B and Eater C are probably also slightly negative-expectation bets. Meaning if TNT gives them 5-1 odds, they are definitely better than 6-1, but definitely not better than 5-1. They could be 5.3 to 1, or even 5.5 to 1. Either way, I will stick with my single bet and be done with it. Not much of a moneymaker unless it is a big arbitrage, in which case I feel good about winning my maximum bet back.
- Two races are profitable.
Let us do some talking now!
This is probably the most common scenario you will see on a day-to-day basis. It is not your biggest moneymaker, but the skill in doing these correctly will result in a decent and solid bit of profit. Let us start out with what I [sirhatter] call the Two-Race Monty.
- Race 1 has the following pirates:
- Eater A: 2:1
- Eater B: 6:1
- Eater C: 9:1
- Eater D: 13:1
- Race 2 offers us this scenario:
- Eater E: 2:1
- Eater F: 10:1
- Eater G: 11:1
- Eater H: 12:1
Both races are decent-sized arbitrages, and both are clearly profitable.The main bet I want to make, again, is as follows:
- 2000 on A at 2:1
- 2000 on E at 2:1
- 2000 on AE at 4:1
We have talked about this before. This is the basic two-race monty, and you will make this bet every time it comes up.There are two more bets I want to make. In the one-race monty, I did not want to hedge, and I had reasons why. Here I will make one hedge bet, and it is a very important bet to make.
2000 on BE at 12 to 1 Why this bet? Is not B still a losing-expectation pirate?
Yes. B is a loser. But B-E is a big winner. The second race outlined is a big arbitrage situation, 20 full points. Racer E has about a 73% chance of winning in my book.
While Racer B probably is not even 16.6% good to win, its going to be above 14% to win, and it is pretty darn close to an even money bet. More importantly, Racer/Eater A has a 32% chance of wrecking us and ensuring we have a losing bet on our two-race monty.
Overall, if I just do the two-race monty, here is what I can expect:
- 50% of the time I win 10,000 (If A and E win)
- 41% of the time I lose 2,000 (If A or E, but not both, wins)
- 9% of the time I lose 6,000 (If A and E lose)
All told that is a net profit of about 3600 per race.
That hedge bet, though, changes the odds a bit. Here are the new odds:
- 50% of the time I win 8,000 (if A and E win, I win less this time in profit)
- 12% of the time I win 20,000 (if E and B hit, I get the payoff on E and EB)
- 29% of the time I lose 4,000
- 9% of the time I lose 8,000 (again, a disaster — A and E both miss)
This changes the odds a little bit for me. The potential loss is bigger, but I actually win a little bit more often, and more importantly, my average profit is now about 4400 per race!
The hedge bet here is clearly good, because betting on EB by itself is a winning proposition. I could make other hedges, or even change the value of my hedges. I could just bet 1000 on EB, and maybe 1000 on EC. I could even bet 500 or 1000 on AF. Whatever the neopets food club lefty says. There is some creativity here that you can tailor to your bet. But this is a spot where the two-race monty is good, but a well-timed hedge can be even better. 7/8 times you are just throwing away an extra 2000, but that 8th time you are making 22,000 neopoints you never would have had otherwise. And that is a valuable insight.
(‘)When two races are profitable, bet the two-race monty, and possibly hedge, especially if the hedge involves the second pirate having decent odds (I define decent as 7:1 or better; you can define this as you wish).
- 4 – Three races are profitable. It is three-race monty time (with three hedges behind it)! This is actually similar to the two-race monty. Let us set up our races, and go over what the three-race monty looks like.
- Race 1:
- Eater A: 2:1
- Eater B: 13:1
- Eater C: 13:1
- Eater D: 13:1
- Race 2:
- Eater E: 2:1
- Eater F: 5:1
- Eater G: 6:1
- Eater H: 9:1
- Race 3:
- Eater I: 2:1
- Eater J: 4:1
- Eater K: 12:1
- Eater L: 13:1
(‘) Race 1 is a monster race. Races 2 and 3 will help make Race 1 even more profitable. First the three-race monty:
- Bet 2000 on A at 2 to 1
- Bet 2000 on E at 2 to 1
- Bet 2000 on I at 2 to 1
- Bet 2000 on AE at 4 to 1
- Bet 2000 on AI at 4 to 1
- Bet 2000 on EI at 4 to 1
- Bet 2000 on AEI at 8 to 1
- If all three pirates win: 14000 NP turns into 52000, for a profit of 38000
- If two of the three pirates win: 14,000 NP turns into 16,000 for a profit of 2,000 NP (ouch!)
- If one of the three pirates wins: 14,000 NP turns into 2,000 NP for a LOSS of 12,000
- If zero of the three pirates win: it is perfectly acceptable at this point to say your favourite expletive as loudly as you wish and spike whatever you are holding at the moment against the floor. Please try not to hold anything too fragile in your hand when checking your winnings.
- Race 1:
Phew! Remember that the 3 races are the most profitable. So, even if you have more’ turn them into three. With this strategy (better understood by people who actually studied economy and investment techniques) I assure you bigger chance of having long time average profit. For the immediate profit try the ‘Basic Strategy’ explained above.
Food Club Cheats
There currently isn’t any neopets food club glitches or cheats, and there certainly is no neopets food club auto better on the market either, just due to the nature of this game. You’re best bet is to use the food club calculator and food club help pages, to help you make educated bets. This game isn’t rigged by any means, and the favour is really in our hands!
Food Club Trophy
Winning neopets Food Club bets must be collected within the next week (or you’ll lose them) and it is possible to collect more than one day returns at once. It is possible to build up winnings from several days and collect a huge profit on the ‘erasing’ night, allowing you to win a neat trophy. There are more complex ways to explain this and to make an optimal profit *pokes maths above* but with what was already explained you’ll be able to figure on what to bet and on what to do.